SPECULAR

Evaluation multi-échelle de la faisabilité et des impacts de stratégies de décarbonation de l’industrie basées sur la sobriété

Among the strategies for decarbonising the economy, those based on sufficiency have received growing interest in recent years. They are defined by the IPCC as a set of policy measures and daily practices that avoid the demand for energy, materials, land, water, and other natural resources while providing wellbeing for all within the planetary boundaries. These strategies are considered to have high potential for climate change mitigation, mobilizable in the short term, thus capable of accelerating the climate transition. For this reason, there is a growing consensus among scientists and policymakers that sufficiency-based strategies must complement technological advancements to achieve ambitious climate targets.

However, there remains a significant gap in understanding how to operationalise sufficiency, and more specifically when it comes to decarbonising the industrial sector. This gap arises from the fact that studying the feasibility and impacts of sufficiency-based industrial decarbonisation strategies poses several scientific challenges. First these strategies involve potential disruptions to production, social norms, and business models. Second, they have a systemic scope, as they may affect production processes, the regulations governing a sector, or the entire upstream supply chain. Third they can also be controversial and therefore more difficult to discuss directly with stakeholders.

Faced with these challenges, we will (i) focus on concrete implementation cases; (ii) adopt a multi scale and interdisciplinary approach; (iii) develop a resolutely participatory approach. Three case studies raising complex issues for the industrial sector have been identified for and will be examined in three work-packages (WP). WP1 aims to study the feasibility and industry implications of car downsizing. WP2 aims to investigate value chains relocation in energy transition industries. WP3 aims to position sufficiency-based strategies for decarbonising the plastics industry. We will take an interdisciplinary approach to each case study, combining three disciplinary fields: (1) political and regulatory analysis, (2) sociological and socio-technical analysis, (3) economic analysis and prospective modelling. An additional WP4 is dedicated to generating cross-functionality and generalisation to decarbonise the industrial sector, built on lessons learned from other work packages. The project will involve a wide range of stakeholders in the decarbonisation process, including industrial leaders, public policy players and transition activists. These stakeholders will be mobilised through field surveys for the case studies (WP1 to 3), the implementation of the Living Lab approach to reinforce the operationality of the results (WP4) and the creation of a stakeholder Committee. The SPECULAR project will deliver key outputs on sufficiency-based decarbonisation strategies for industry. It will produce: (1) mapping of regulations and policies that affect these strategies; (2) analyses of societal drivers and barriers, along with solutions; and (3) assessments of impacts on emissions, employment, and macroeconomics. These findings will initially focus on the case studies, with broader generalisations explored in WP4. Outputs include scientific publications, policy briefs, and scenarios for international databases, as well as events organised along the project and the participatory process. These strategies will have impacts on decarbonising industry, relocating jobs, and enhancing sovereignty.