SPECULAR Project
Multi-scale assessment of the feasibility and impacts of industrial decarbonization strategies based on efficiency and sobriety
Project coordinated by Ecole des Ponts Paris Tech
Duration of 4,5 years
2 millions euros of budget
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Context and challenges
*“Among the strategies aimed at decarbonizing the economy, those based on sobriety have attracted growing interest in recent years. They are defined by the IPCC as a set of policy measures and daily practices that avoid demand for energy, materials, land, water, and other natural resources while ensuring well-being for all within planetary boundaries. These strategies are considered to have high climate mitigation potential, can be mobilized in the short term, and thus have the capacity to accelerate the climate transition. For this reason, scientists and policymakers increasingly agree that sobriety-based strategies should complement technological advances to achieve ambitious climate targets.
However, a significant gap remains in understanding how to implement sobriety, particularly regarding the decarbonization of the industrial sector. This gap arises because studying the feasibility and impacts of industrial decarbonization strategies based on sufficiency poses several scientific challenges. First, these strategies may involve potential disruptions to production, social norms, and economic models. Second, they have a systemic scope, as they can affect production processes, sectoral regulations, or entire upstream supply chains. Third, they may also be controversial and thus more difficult to discuss directly with stakeholders.
Scientific objectives
The SPECULAR project will focus on concrete implementation cases; adopt a multi-scale and interdisciplinary approach; and develop a thoroughly participatory methodology.
Three case studies raising complex questions for the industrial sector have been identified and will be examined within three work packages (WPs). WP1 aims to study the feasibility and industrial implications of reducing car sizes. WP2 aims to examine the relocation of value chains in energy transition industries. WP3 aims to position sufficiency-based strategies for decarbonizing the plastics industry.
The SPECULAR project will adopt an interdisciplinary approach for each case study, combining three disciplinary domains:
(1) Policy and regulatory analysis;
(2) Sociological and socio-technical analysis;
(3) Economic analysis and prospective modeling.
An additional WP4 is dedicated to generating cross-cutting insights and generalizing industrial decarbonization strategies, based on lessons learned from the other work packages.
Expected objectives
The SPECULAR project will provide key results on sufficiency-based decarbonization strategies for industry. It will deliver:
(1) A mapping of regulations and policies affecting these strategies;
(2) Analyses of societal factors and barriers, along with proposed solutions;
(3) Assessments of impacts on emissions, employment, and the macroeconomy.
These results will initially focus on the case studies, with broader generalizations explored in WP4. Outcomes will include scientific publications, policy briefs, and scenarios for international databases, as well as events organized within the project and participatory process. These strategies are expected to influence industrial decarbonization, job relocation, and the strengthening of sovereignty.
The consortium
The project will involve a wide range of stakeholders in the decarbonization process, including industrial leaders, public policy actors, and transition advocates. These stakeholders will be engaged through field surveys for the case studies (WP1 to 3), the implementation of a Living Lab approach to enhance the operational relevance of results (WP4), and the creation of a stakeholder committee.
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